Flight Riskhas a chance to debut at No. 1. The 2025 movie, which is a claustrophobic thriller set on a plane, was directed by Mel Gibson, who has previously helmed massive hits including 2004’sThe Passion of the Christ(which grossed $612.1 million against a $30 million budget) and the 1995 Best Picture winnerBraveheart(which grossed $209 million against roughly $72 million). The thriller is led by Gibson’sDaddy’s Home 2co-star Mark Wahlberg, whose huge roster of No. 1 movies includesUncharted,Transformers: The Last Knight,Pain & Gain,Transformers: Age of Extinction,2 Guns, andTed.

Although theFlight Riskcastis small, it is star-studded. In addition to featuring Wahlberg in an atypically villainous role as a mob hitman masquerading as the pilot of a small aircraft,it featuresThat ’70s ShowandSpider-Man 3star Topher Graceas the informant who is his target. The movie also featuresDownton Abbeystar Michelle Dockery, who is a four-time Emmy nominee, as a Deputy U.S. Marshal escorting the latter. Thus, the movie is set up for potential success when it debuts in theaters on January 24 as one of the first major new releases of 2025.

Where To Watch Flight Risk: Showtimes & Streaming Status

Mark Wahlberg plays a villain in a new Mel Gibson movie. There are options for where to watch Flight Risk in theaters, on streaming, and on digital.

Flight Risk Opening Weekend Box Office Projections

It Could Become 2025’s Second No. 1 Movie

At the time of writing, the opening weekend ofMel Gibson’sFlight Riskisprojected to have somewhat lukewarm results. While the movie’s budget was likely relatively slim given its limited cast and locations, as of January 17,Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast showed the movie debuting at the domestic box office in a range between $10 million and $17 million. As its opening weekend drew closer, its prospects diminished somewhat, asBox Office Theory’s projections as of January 22 show the lower bound of its range shrinking to $7 million, with its upper bound only coming in at $12 million.

[Flight Risk] is the biggest new wide release movie of the weekend…

A roughly $10 million debut could putFlight Riskon track to break even depending on its budget, but it is unknown if this total will be enough for it to debut at No. 1 on the domestic box office chart. However, it is the biggest new wide release movie of the weekend, whichcould mean that it will essentially be No. 1 by default. This would make it the second No. 1 debut so far for a 2025 release, afterDen of Thieves 2: Panteratopped the chart with its $15 million opening during the weekend of January 10.

Smaller Releases For January 24 & Box Office Projections

Flight Risk Debuts Opposite A New Steven Soderbergh Movie & More

While it is the most prominent new release of the weekend,Flight Riskdoes have some competition in the form of several smaller titles that will premiere on the same day. Of these, the most prominent isSteven Soderbergh’sPresence, a haunted house movie that sees the director experimenting with the tropes of the horror genre. Also set to debut are the Jared Harris-led Angel Studios dramaBrave the Dark, the Phoebe Dynevor spy thrillerInheritance, the Japanese animated movieThe Colors Within, and more. Below,see a breakdown of the weekend’s smaller new releasesand their most up-to-date projections:

unknown

$3.5 million - $6.5 million

Bau: Artist at War

For the most part, projections for smaller titles (which also include the Emile Hirsch romantic dramaBau: Artist at War) are unavailable, but theBox Office Theoryforecastdoes not expect any new releases to join the domestic Top 10 exceptFlight RiskandBrave the Dark. While Angel Studios has not yet matched the success of their 2023 hitSound of Freedom, which debuted with $19.7 million, their follow-up faith-based offerings have debuted at an average of $5 million, setting a precedent thatBrave the Darkis likely to follow, though it seems destined to fall belowFlight Risk.

One Of Them Days & Mufasa Could Battle For The #1 Spot This Weekend Once Again

Flight Risk Has Major Competition From Holdover Hits

The factor that could most threatenFlight Risk’s No. 1 status is the ongoing box office battle between the previous weekend’s new release comedyOne of Them Daysand the ongoingMufasa: The Lion Kingrelease.The 2024 photorealistic CG-animated Disney prequel took No. 1 over Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekendin a surprise upset, but it was neck and neck with the Keke Palmer comedy. AsOne of Them Daysheads into its sophomore weekend andMufasacontinues into its sixth, they could both provide major competition for the incoming thriller, especially considering its shrinking opening weekend projections.

Blumhouse’s Universal Monster remakeWolf Manalso debuted on the same weekend asOne of Them Days, taking No. 3 behind it andMufasa.

IfFlight Risklands at the top of its projected range and earns $12 million, it will easily take No. 1. The previous weekend,Mufasa: The Lion Kingonly earned $12 million, whileOne of Them Daysgrossed $11.8 million. As it is unlikely that either movie will earn more on the weekend of January 24 than they did over the holiday weekend,both should fall significantly below $12 million. However, if their week-on-week drops are slim enough, they could still force the movie out of the No. 1 slot if it hits its lower end and makes $7 million.

Predicted Top 10 Box Office For January 24-26, 2025

Flight Risk Should At Least Be In The Top 3

Regardless of whereFlight Risklands in its range, theMark Wahlberg thrillerseems likely to end up in the Top 3 movies at the domestic box office during its opening weekend, even if it loses the competition to bothMufasa: The Lion KingandOne of Them Days. Even with a number of other 2024 holdover hits maintaining positions on the chart, the fact that it is a new release should help buoy it above the other movies in theaters. Below, seeone possible way that the Top 10 chart could lookby the end of Sunday, January 26:

1

$8.4 million

2

$8 million

3

$7.1 million

4

Sonic the Hedgehog 3

$6.1 million

5

$5 million

6

$4.4 million

7

$4.2 million

8

$4 million

9

$2.9 million

10

A Complete Unknown

$2.6 million

Ultimately, it seems most likely thatFlight Riskwill debut at No. 2. Although it has many elements working in its favor, January 2025 has seen a number of lukewarm debuts, and at the time of writing it does not seem that the domestic box office will have a new release become a major runaway hit until at least mid-February, whenCaptain America: Brave New WorldandPaddington in Perudebut. However, the Wahlberg movie does not yet have a Rotten Tomatoes score, soits debut prospects could shift up or down depending on whether critics love or hate it.

Source(s):BoxofficePro,Box Office Theory

Flight Risk

Flight Risk follows a U.S. Marshal tasked with escorting a government witness accused of collusion with a mob boss. Amidst their journey, they uncover that their pilot is a hitman. Facing attempts on their lives, the pair must navigate perilous skies to reach their destination safely.